Yahtzee probability calculator: odds of rolling five of a kind
Use this calculator after you have chosen the number you are chasing. Enter how many matching dice you already hold and how many rolls remain. The result is the probability that every unmatched die becomes your target number before the turn ends.
Calculate your Yahtzee chance
How the calculation works
Each unmatched die has a 1-in-6 chance of showing your target number on one roll. With multiple rolls, a die succeeds as long as it hits the target at least once. The probability for one die across r rolls is:
1 − (5/6)r
If you still need several matching dice, that probability is raised to the number of dice needed. For example, holding three matching dice with two rolls remaining means two dice still need to hit. Each has an 11/36 chance across two rolls, so the combined chance is (11/36)², or about 9.34%.
Useful Yahtzee probability examples
| Current hand | Rolls left | Chance to complete |
|---|---|---|
| Four matching dice | 1 | 16.67% |
| Four matching dice | 2 | 30.56% |
| Three matching dice | 2 | 9.34% |
| Two matching dice | 2 | 2.85% |
| One chosen target die | 2 | 0.87% |
What are the odds from a fresh turn?
If you play optimally—keeping the most common face after the first roll and adapting to ties—the chance of rolling any Yahtzee within the standard three-roll turn is about 4.60%, or roughly 1 in 21.7 turns. That figure is higher than committing to one specific number before the first roll because optimal play lets the first roll choose your best target.
Should you chase it?
- Four matching dice with two rolls left: almost always chase; the chance is better than 30%.
- Three matching dice with two rolls left: chase when Yahtzee is open or a high upper score is useful.
- Two matching dice after the first roll: treat Yahtzee as upside, not the only plan. Keep alternative categories available.
- Late in Triple Yahtzee: multiplier value may justify a lower-probability chase.
- When your Yahtzee box is already zero: pivot toward the upper section, Three/Four of a Kind, or Chance.
For category values and joker rules, read how Yahtzee scoring works. For multiplier allocation, see our Triple Yahtzee strategy guide.